Above-normal temperatures and below-normal snowfall are favored for the North Shore this winter, though cold snaps and disruptive winter storms remain possible.

NOAA and the National Weather Service released their winter 2026-2027 outlook on Thursday, Oct. 15. The driving force is a powerful El Niño. The National Weather Service called it "a very strong to historically strong El Niño" that will shape weather patterns all season, as first reported by Patch.

For the Chicago area, above-normal temperatures are favored from December through February. The National Weather Service's Chicago office expressed medium-to-high confidence in below-normal snowfall, according to Patch. NOAA's national outlook, however, notes that it does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations, since snow forecasts are generally not reliable more than a week out.

On precipitation more broadly, the NWS Chicago office expects totals "roughly near average." But NOAA's national outlook shows elevated odds for drier-than-average conditions in some Great Lakes areas. The two assessments don't fully align, and residents should expect the picture to sharpen as winter approaches.

The forecast comes with caveats. Only six very strong El Niño events have been recorded, the weather service noted, making the sample size too small for firm conclusions. Cold snaps are not off the table.

"We're still likely to experience at least a few periods of noteworthy cold weather," the weather service said.

Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service, said in the agency's official release that a very strong El Niño will likely shift the jet stream southward and eastward across the country. Graham's comments focused on stormier weather and flood risks in the South, but he urged communities nationwide to plan ahead.

No snow has fallen in the Chicago area as of mid-October. The average date for the first trace of snow is Oct. 31, according to weather service data. The first measurable snowfall typically arrives around Nov. 18, and the first accumulation of an inch or more averages Dec. 7.

For families looking for indoor winter activity, the Wilmette Park District's Centennial Ice Rinks at 2300 Old Glenview Road offer public skate sessions on weekends. The rink also runs special school-day-off sessions on select Mondays, including Nov. 23, Jan. 18 and Feb. 15, 2027.

NOAA updates its three-month outlook monthly. The next update is scheduled for Nov. 19.